Solar Energetic Particle Event Forecasting System API

This API is the product of our study abstracted below:

An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable predictive results. While many flare prediction studies do not address this problem directly, all-clear predictions can be useful in operational context. However, in all-clear predictions, finding the right balance between avoiding false negatives (misses) and reducing the false positives (false alarms) is often challenging. Our study focuses on training and testing a set of interval-based time series named Time Series Forest (TSF). These classifiers will be used towards building an all-clear flare prediction system by utilizing multivariate time series data. Throughout this paper, we demonstrate our data collection, predictive model building and evaluation processes, and compare our time series classification models with baselines using our benchmark datasets. Our results show that time series classifiers provide better forecasting results in terms of skill scores, precision and recall metrics, and they can be further improved for more precise all-clear forecasts by tuning model hyperparameters.

SEP All Clear Requests

Option Descriptions

  • datetime: A query Datetime input must be in the following format: YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SS. When provided, the result in the database that is the first next report after this time is returned. When not provided, the most recent report from the database is returned.

  • Default Data Request:

    An example of the address for the minimal result JSON object with only the issue time and all clear probability returned for next report after November 12, 2020 at 09:19:00: ./all-clear-report/?datetime=2020-11-12T09:19:00

    Output is a JSON serialized response in a format matching the following: {"issue_time": "2020-11-12T09:36:00Z", "all_clear_prob": 1.0}


  • Extended Scoreboard Data Request:

    An example of the address for the extended result JSON object with only the issue time and all clear probability returned for next report after November 12, 2020 at 09:19:00: ./all-clear-scoreboard-report/?datetime=2020-11-12T09:19:00

    Output is a JSON serialized response in a format matching the following: {"sep_forecast_submission": {"model": {"short_name": "GSU All Clear", "spase_id": "N/A"}, "issue_time": "2021-10-11T16:24:00Z", "mode": "historical", "forecasts": [{"energy_channel": {"min": 10, "max": -1, "units": "MeV"}, "species": "proton", "location": "earth", "prediction_window": {"start_time": "2021-10-11T16:24:00Z", "end_time": "2021-10-12T04:24:00Z"}, "probabilities": [{"probability_value": 0.273930081225936, "threshold": 10.0, "threshold_units": "pfu"}], "all_clear": {"all_clear_boolean": false, "threshold": 10.0, "threshold_units": "pfu", "probability_threshold": 0.25}}]}}